A few days ago, I watched a documentary on Thomas Sowell, and was struck by Sowell’s sincere commitment to following facts, even when they led to uncomfortable conclusions. This commitment led Sowell, once a convinced Marxist, to abandon his prior beliefs and seek new and better ideas. What, I thought, were the facts that I was unwilling to face?
With that background—and the full knowledge that it is always dangerous to extrapolate from the present to the future—I am putting forth these observations about the global state of humanity:
1. There is no reason to think the de-Christianization of European and derivative societies will stop.
The trend toward decreasing public and private observation of Christianity has now been observed for at least two centuries. While the process has not been linear, there is no obvious end to this trend in the short- to medium-term. Looking from the top down on our social structures, almost all elite institutions are now, at best, secular, and, at worst. aggressively atheistic. From the bottom up, members of younger age cohorts are increasingly likely to profess no religious belief. Thus, there is no observable social mechanism in operation that could plausibly reverse this trend in the near future.
2. There is no evidence that secular societies can survive in the long term.
All known historical societies appear to have had prominent religious components. The situation we find ourselves in today is, therefore, unprecedented. While the absence of a historical example of success is troubling, what is worse is the emerging trend of biological failure of secular societies. All countries in Europe (except perhaps Monaco) have fertility rates below replacement rate, and thus cannot sustain their populations without immigration.
Many would argue that this is not a problem, or even that it is good because there is an overpopulation of humans. Without delving too deep into that debate, we can still note that there is no historical precedent for a societies believing themselves to be overpopulated while enjoying steadily increasing food supplies and other material improvements. It may also be objected that it is not secularism that reduces fertility, but wealth or income. Again, we need not resolve that question here, as these two trends – increasingly wealth and increasing secularization – have thus far proven inseparable. What is certain is that the trend of fertility below replacement rate cannot continue indefinitely without the extinction of the societies at issue, yet there is no end in sight.
3. There is no reason to think mental illness will stop increasing.
Beyond the general biological failure of secular societies, individual members are experiencing a failure of mental health. Mental illness has exploded in recent decades, and much (probably most) of it does not appear to be due to increased diagnosis. There is no evidence that the trend is mitigating in the short term. There is also no evidence that the “cure” rate for common mental illnesses is increasing, and in many areas it appears to be decreasing. Furthermore, societies are, in many cases, normalizing mental illness (e.g., everyone has ADHD), or even encouraging it (e.g., being “trans” is now an intrinsic part of one’s self to be cultivated, rather than an illness to be resolved). Hence, there is no reason to think our societies will not become increasingly mentally ill in the future.
And yet …
4. There is no reason to think productivity increases will cease in the short to medium term.
Unlike prior ages, societies in our era lose very little articulated knowledge because modern digital systems (particularly the Internet) are exceptionally good at preserving written and visual information and then redistributing it as needed. While particular examples of negative learning curves are easy to spot, the overall trend is remarkably one-sided in favor of increased productivity. Perhaps if depopulation (or madness) reached a critical point this trend would reverse, but for the foreseeable future almost all societies are getting steadily better at producing more goods and services per person working.
5. There is no reason to think global culture will not continue to converge.
The late 20th century saw a remarkable homogenizing of world societies driven by European political and economic dominance. While no one would confuse Denmark for Guangdong, disparate cultures have never had more in common than in the present. Given that ideas have never been easier to communicate, there is little reason to think this trend will no continue.
There is no reason, in short, to think that the future won’t be Godless, dying, and mad, yet technically skilled and culturally homogenous.
What if such a world does not particularly appeal to you?
6. There is no reason to think anyone can start a different society on Earth, or even the Moon or Mars, that would not be subject to these trends.
Futurists often imagine that in a new utopian state — perhaps under the sea, or on the Moon or Mars — a new breed of man will create a brave new world. Alas, the more likely outcome is that they will create a Brave New World.
Given the unavoidable dependence of such societies on Earth, including constant communication and immigration, there is little reason to think they would be different in the long run. The forces of cultural convergence will apply equally on the Moon and Malta.
What can we conclude from all this? More on that later.